Africa’s oil production to hit 7m bopd in 2025

Africa’s oil output has been tipped to grow to 7 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2025, but this will rely on Nigeria curtailing vandalism of its crude oil pipelines as well as a more stable environment in Sudan, which also affects South Sudan’s production.

The State of African Energy 2025 Outlook Report released by the African Energy Chamber predicts that the continent’s production of crude oil and condensates will increase from an estimated 6.5 million bodp in 2024.

Africa’s output is tipped to contribute 8% to the global crude oil supply in 2024 and 2025 as both global and African supply are expected to grow gradually next year. The report states that West Africa continues to remain the major driver or oil supply, producing around 3.7 million bpd of oil currently. With sustained production from Angola, and a recovery from Nigeria, the region could produce between 3.8-3.9 million bopd.

West Africa is then followed by North Africa, which produces another 3 million bopd of oil currently. With sustained supply from Algeria- which also is an OPEC member nation and follows the quotas closely, and healthy undisrupted oil supply from Libya, the region is estimated to continue producing at flattish levels.

However, Libya’s healthy supply is very much dependent on the political stability in the country, and any change in that can lead to protests and production shutdowns. Lastly, South Sudan’s production has also been impacted significantly as the oil pipeline to Sudan was damaged earlier this year and no crude has been flowing through the pipeline since then. South Sudan relies heavily on the oil pipeline since it exports its crude to Sudan.

While there were attempts to restart the oil pipeline in late May this year, we are yet to see any signs of resumption in exports. South Sudan is quite dependent on oil export revenues, and this development affects the country in a major way.

african energy chamber

Slightly more than half (55%) of Africa’s oil supply comes from onshore, while the remainder is split between shelf and deepwater segments. Among the regions, West Africa’s supply is dominated by the offshore segment, contributing almost 75% of West African oil supply.

This is totally opposite in North Africa, where onshore contributes to more than 90% of the oil supply. Countries such as Libya, Nigeria and Sudan, which face supply disruptions face such challenges only on the onshore side.

Angola exited the OPEC organization last year after the expanded OPEC+ group allocated the West African nation a smaller oil-production quota than what it had requested – 1.11 million bopd as opposed to the 1.18 million bopd target Angola wanted.

With one less OPEC member in Africa, the current African OPEC crude oil supply, comprised of Libya, Congo, Gabon, Nigeria, Algeria and Equatorial Guinea, hovers at around 3.9 million bopd.

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